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Which Group Of Shares Or Currencies Should You Trade In?

Here are questions which should be asked five minutes' inspection of your
about any stock group you are studying. supermarket's shelves. Plastic
Some of the answers will be squeeze-bottles of one sort or another
contradictory; the significance of all of have cut into glass as far as the
them will be relative. But each will packaging of cosmetics is concerned.
contribute a plus or minus factor to your On the other hand, the appearance of
thinking about the industry you may wish liquid soaps has given glass an
to invest in. opportunity in a field that was
1) Does the industry deal in necessities exclusively the paper-carton supplier's.
or "postponables"? Does it produce things The paper-carton manufacturer, meanwhile,
people have to have in good times or has benefited from frozen foods at the
bad-food, drugs, power, or heating expense of the tin-can producer. But the
supplies? Or can people put off buying tin-can man has a new area in the
its products to another year? There is pressure containers now used to dispense
one investor who holds meat-packing and shaving cream, toothpaste, hair lotions,
distillery stocks, not notably high-grade and anything else that can be squirted or
issues, because of his conviction that, sprayed-and that isn't already in a
come hell or high water, beef and bourbon plastic squeeze-bottle.
will be staples of the American diet. 5) Are wages a big item in the industry?
The same question on a different level: How large a percentage of total sales are
Is the industry involved in durable or they? This, of course, can bear heavily
capital goods, such as locomotives, on net earnings and, consequently,
trucks, freight cars, ships, large dividends. In the chemical industry, the
buildings? These are expensive items with ratio of wages to sales is quite small.
a long life, and are usually financed In steel and railroading, which have vast
with long-term, fixed obligations. In a numbers of employees and huge payrolls,
pinch, they are among the first things it is quite large.
customers are prepared to do without. 6) Do raw materials come from domestic
2)Is the industry depression-resistant? sources or from abroad? Are their prices
Retail stores, tobacco, metal containers, traditionally stable or volatile? This,
and, again, food products have a of course, applies to the oil, rubber,
reputation for stability, not only in and sugar companies, to some of the
terms of continuing consumer demand, but mining and metals companies, and to a few
in terms of production costs and price of the chemicals. This is, possibly, not
structures which make them attractive as so important as it once was, considering
so-called defensive issues. that few industries are totally dependent
3)Is it an extractive industry? Does it on foreign resources, and that political
deal in natural raw materials, such as upheavals or wars are so far-reaching
oil, lumber, asbestos, metals? Stocks of these days that almost everyone is
these companies are considered good affected to some degree, at home and
hedges against inflation because they abroad.
represent a primary material, an asset The question should also be broadened to
already owned. The acquisition cost of include foreign markets: What percentage
oil underground, for instance, may of income derives from sales abroad? This
already have been rationalized; would affect air and shipping lines,
henceforth all that can be inflated are distributors like W. R. Grace and U. S.
the extraction and distribution costs. Industries, and the export trade of the
4)How keen is competition within the auto, machinery, movie, and
industry? Usually competition is keenest electrical-equipment industries.
where the differences are least. The investor will have to decide, too,
Automobiles, soaps and detergents, drugs, whether he considers foreign trade a
tobaccos, gasolines and motor oils-within positive or negative item. Overseas
these categories the companies all offer markets may be uncertain or undependable,
the consumer pretty much the same thing. but they are also frontier areas of
The local power and light company, the tremendous potentiality for an economy
telephone company, and the natural gas like that of the United States, which has
companies (except for the scramble to run lived so largely off its own people.
pipelines here or there) are virtually With Forex trading economic indicators
without competition. will have to be studied as well.
Cross-competition between industries is Good Forex software can greatly help you
also a factor. This is not the struggle with this task.
of Coke vs. Pepsi, or Tide vs. All, but Forex software has become so good that it
whether new office buildings are going to has artificial intelligence and can
have a skin of brick and mortar, aluminum predict future currency movements with
sheets, or glass panels. some accuracy.
The container and packaging people are a You still need to be aware of the risks
lovely example of round-robin involved in any financial investing and
competition, as is perfectly evident from only invest what you can afford to lose.




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